Antifragile

Filename: antifragile.pdf
ISBN: 9780679645276
Release Date: 2012-11-27
Number of pages: 544
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House

Download and read online Antifragile in PDF and EPUB Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Praise for Antifragile “Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”—The Economist “A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”—Newsweek “Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”—Chicago Tribune “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal “Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”—New Statesman “Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”—Fortune “At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times From the Hardcover edition.


The Bed of Procrustes

Filename: the-bed-of-procrustes.pdf
ISBN: 9780679643685
Release Date: 2010-11-30
Number of pages: 176
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House

Download and read online The Bed of Procrustes in PDF and EPUB With fifty percent more material than the hardcover, this expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile. By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness. “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times From the Trade Paperback edition.


Fooled by Randomness

Filename: fooled-by-randomness.pdf
ISBN: 1588367673
Release Date: 2008-10-14
Number of pages: 368
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House

Download and read online Fooled by Randomness in PDF and EPUB Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.


Incerto

Filename: incerto.pdf
ISBN: 9780399590450
Release Date: 2016-11-08
Number of pages: 1568
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks

Download and read online Incerto in PDF and EPUB Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab≤ it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.


The Black Swan Second Edition

Filename: the-black-swan-second-edition.pdf
ISBN: 0679604189
Release Date: 2010-05-11
Number of pages: 480
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House

Download and read online The Black Swan Second Edition in PDF and EPUB The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.


Incerto 4 Book Bundle

Filename: incerto-4-book-bundle.pdf
ISBN: 9780812997699
Release Date: 2016-01-26
Number of pages: 1568
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House

Download and read online Incerto 4 Book Bundle in PDF and EPUB Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.


Dynamic Hedging

Filename: dynamic-hedging.pdf
ISBN: 0471152803
Release Date: 1997-01-14
Number of pages: 506
Author: Nassim Taleb
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Download and read online Dynamic Hedging in PDF and EPUB Dynamic Hedging is the definitive source on derivatives risk. Itprovides a real–world methodology for managing portfolioscontaining any nonlinear security. It presents risks from thevantage point of the option market maker and arbitrage operator.The only book about derivatives risk written by an experiencedtrader with theoretical training, it remolds option theory to fitthe practitioner′s environment. As a larger share of marketexposure cannot be properly captured by mathematical models, notedoption arbitrageur Nassim Taleb uniquely covers both on–model andoff–model derivatives risks. The author discusses, in plain English, vital issues,including: The generalized option, which encompasses all instruments withconvex payoff, including a trader′s potential bonus. The techniques for trading exotic options, including binary,barrier, multiasset, and Asian options, as well as methods to takeinto account the wrinkles of actual, non–bellshapeddistributions. Market dynamics viewed from the practitioner′s vantage point,including liquidity holes, portfolio insurance, squeezes, fattails, volatility surface, GARCH, curve evolution, static optionreplication, correlation instability, Pareto–Levy, regime shifts,autocorrelation of price changes, and the severe flaws in the valueat risk method. New tools to detect risks, such as higher moment analysis,topography exposure, and nonparametric techniques. The path dependence of all options hedged dynamically. Dynamic Hedging is replete with helpful tools, market anecdotes,at–a–glance risk management rules distilling years of market lore,and important definitions. The book contains modules in which thefundamental mathematics of derivatives, such as the Brownianmotion, Ito′s lemma, the numeraire paradox, the Girsanov change ofmeasure, and the Feynman–Kac solution are presented in intuitivepractitioner′s language. Dynamic Hedging is an indispensable and definitive reference formarket makers, academics, finance students, risk managers, andregulators. The definitive book on options trading and risk management "If pricing is a science and hedging is an art, Taleb is avirtuoso." –Bruno Dupire, Head of Swaps and Options Research,Paribas Capital Markets "This is not merely the best book on how options trade, it isthe only book." –Stan Jonas, Managing Director, FIMAT–SocietyGARCH "Dynamic Hedging bridges the gap between what the besttraders know and what the best scholars can prove." –WilliamMargrabe, President, The William Margrabe Group, Inc. "The most comprehensive, insightful, intuitive work on thesubject. It is instrumental for both beginning and experiencedtraders."– "A tour de force. That rare find, a book of great practical andtheoretical value. Taleb successfully bridges the gap between theacademic and the real world. Interesting, provocative, wellwritten. Each chapter worth a fortune to any current or prospectivederivatives trader."–Victor Niederhoffer, Chairman, NiederhofferInvestments


The Antifragility Edge

Filename: the-antifragility-edge.pdf
ISBN: 0996943307
Release Date: 2016-09-27
Number of pages: 208
Author: Si Alhir
Publisher: Lid Publishing

Download and read online The Antifragility Edge in PDF and EPUB In today's business world, business organizations experience unprecedented levels of disruption and can only expect the unexpected! While they must perform in a VUCA world (one characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity), their ability to OODA (observe, orient, decide, and act) is no longer enough to survive and thrive amidst disorder! While agility is quintessential for adapting in this new reality, antifragility is quintessential for evolving in this new reality! Conclusively, business organizations must embrace this new reality and emerge stronger! In \"The Antifragility Edge: Antifragility in Practice, \" Si Alhir demystifies antifragility, explores how antifragility may be operationalized or put into practice by business organizations (at the individual, collective, and enterprise level), and offers an actionable roadmap for how business organizations can achieve greater antifragility


Skin in the Game

Filename: skin-in-the-game.pdf
ISBN: 0470330295
Release Date: 2008-03-31
Number of pages: 208
Author: John Hammergren
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Download and read online Skin in the Game in PDF and EPUB While the American health care system has consistently been criticized for its noticeable detriments, few have taken the time to recognize the significant benefits and potential of this system. But with Skin in the Game, authors John Hammergren and Phil Harkins provide a comprehensive overview of the history of our health care system, an explanation of its current state, and a picture of the great strides that they see being made in the near future.


The Mis Behaviour of Markets

Filename: the-mis-behaviour-of-markets.pdf
ISBN: 9781847651556
Release Date: 2010-10-01
Number of pages: 352
Author: Benoit B. Mandelbrot
Publisher: Profile Books

Download and read online The Mis Behaviour of Markets in PDF and EPUB This international bestseller, which foreshadowed a market crash, explains why it could happen again if we don't act now. Fractal geometry is the mathematics of roughness: how to reduce the outline of a jagged leaf or static in a computer connection to a few simple mathematical properties. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has got to the bottom of how financial markets really work. He finds they have a shifting sense of time and wild behaviour that makes them volatile, dangerous - and beautiful. In his models, the complex gyrations of the FTSE 100 and exchange rates can be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a much more accurate description of the risks involved.


A Perfect Mess

Filename: a-perfect-mess.pdf
ISBN: 9781780226477
Release Date: 2013-05-23
Number of pages: 336
Author: Eric Abrahamson
Publisher: Hachette UK

Download and read online A Perfect Mess in PDF and EPUB How Crammed Cupboards, Cluttered Offices, and Off-the-Cuff Planning make the World a Better Place. Like the bestselling Freakonomics or Blink, here is a book that combines a professor's expertise with stories from everyday life to provide a striking new view of how our world works. Ever since Einstein's study of Brownian Motion, scientists have understood that a little disorder actually makes systems more effective. But most people still shun disorder, or suffer guilt over the mess they can't avoid. No longer! With a spectacular array of anecdotes and case studies of the useful role mess can play, here is an antidote to the accepted wisdom that tight schedules, neatness and consistency are the keys to success. Drawing on examples from business, parenting, cooking, the war on terrorism, retail and even the meteoric career of Arnold Schwarzenegger, co-authors Abrahamson and Freedman demonstrate that moderately messy systems use resources more efficiently, yield better solutions and are harder to break than neat ones. A PERFECT MESS will help readers assess what the right amount of disorder is for a given system, and how to apply these ideas on to a large scale - government or society - and on a small scale - in your attic, kitchen or office. A PERFECT MESS will forever change the way we think about those unruly heaps of paper on our desks.


American Jihad

Filename: american-jihad.pdf
ISBN: 9780743477505
Release Date: 2003-02-04
Number of pages: 272
Author: Steven Emerson
Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Download and read online American Jihad in PDF and EPUB Leading the second wave of post 9/11 terrorist books, American Jihad reveals that America is rampant with Islamic terrorist networks and sleeper cells and Emerson, the expert on them, explains just how close they are to each of us.


The Great Degeneration

Filename: the-great-degeneration.pdf
ISBN: 9781101608456
Release Date: 2013-06-13
Number of pages: 192
Author: Niall Ferguson
Publisher: Penguin

Download and read online The Great Degeneration in PDF and EPUB A searching and provocative examination of the widespread institutional rot that threatens our collective future What causes rich countries to lose their way? Symptoms of decline are all around us today: slowing growth, crushing debts, increasing inequality, aging populations, antisocial behavior. But what exactly has gone wrong? The answer, Niall Ferguson argues in The Great Degeneration, is that our institutions—the intricate frameworks within which a society can flourish or fail—are degenerating. With characteristic verve and historical insight, Ferguson analyzes the causes of this stagnation and its profound consequences for the future of the West. The Great Degeneration is an incisive indictment of an era of negligence and complacency—and to arrest the breakdown of our civilization, Ferguson warns, will take heroic leadership and radical reform.


The Most Important Thing Illuminated

Filename: the-most-important-thing-illuminated.pdf
ISBN: 9780231530798
Release Date: 2012-04-17
Number of pages: 248
Author: Howard Marks
Publisher: Columbia University Press

Download and read online The Most Important Thing Illuminated in PDF and EPUB In May of 2011, Columbia Business School Publishing released Howard Marks’ The Most Important Thing, a book that distilled the wisdom of Marks’ celebrated client memos into a single volume, making his time-tested investing philosophy available to general readers for the first time. The book was greeted with wide acclaim from investors—professional, casual, aspiring, and armchair alike—and became a business bestseller. Now, Columbia Business School Publishing is proud to announce an innovative digital edition that allows you to read Marks’ words alongside comments, insights and counterpoints from four other renowned investors and investment educators: Christopher Davis, Joel Greenblatt, Paul Johnson and Seth Klarman. See what these investors think of such concepts as "second-level thinking," the price/value relationship, patient opportunism, and defensive investing. There are also annotations from Howard Marks himself, highlighting some of the themes that run throughout the book, along with a previously unpublished bonus chapter on the importance of reasonable expectations. This edition features a foreword from Bruce Greenwald. Whether you’ve already read The Most Important Thing cover to cover or are new to the book, The Most Important Thing Illuminated will give you an unprecedented look into how America’s top investors make decisions and achieve financial success.


What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars

Filename: what-i-learned-losing-a-million-dollars.pdf
ISBN: 9780231535236
Release Date: 2013-08-20
Number of pages: 192
Author: Jim Paul
Publisher: Columbia University Press

Download and read online What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars in PDF and EPUB Jim Paul’s meteoric rise took him from a small town in Northern Kentucky to Governor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, yet he lost it all—his fortune, his reputation, and his job—in one fatal moment of excessive economic hubris. In this honest, frank analysis, Paul and Brendan Moynihan revisit the events that led up to Paul’s disastrous decision and examine the psychological factors behind bad financial practices in a number of economic sectors. The book begins with the unbroken string of successes that helped Paul achieve a jet-setting lifestyle and land a key spot with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It then describes the circumstances leading up to Paul’s $1.6 million loss and the essential lessons he learned from it—primarily that, although there are as many ways to make money in the markets as there are people participating in them, there are very few ways to produce a loss. People lose money in the markets either because of errors in their analysis or because of psychological barriers preventing the application of analysis. While all analytical methods have some validity and make allowances for instances in which they do not work, psychological factors can keep an investor in a losing position, causing him to abandon one method for another when the first fails. Paul and Moynihan’s cautionary tale concludes with strategies for avoiding loss, tied to a simple framework for understanding, accepting, and dodging the dangers of investing, trading, and speculating.